Is Brian Cowen going to be Ireland’s Gordon Brown?

Irish politics is set for major change following Bertie Ahern’s announcement today that he will step down as Prime Minister and Fianna Fáil leader on 6th May. Ahern has been a giant of the modern Irish scene, having been Taoiseach since 1997 and the first three-time election winner since De Valera, as well as playing a major role in the peace process in Northern Ireland.

Ahern’s speech can be seen here and follows recent intense probing into his personal finances by a judicial tribunal into planning corruption, and Cabinet ministers suggesting that Ahern address the mounting disquiet. Brian Cowen looks a virtual certainty to succeed him, and there could even be a Brown-style “coronation”. Ahern to Cowen has parallels with Blair to Brown - the charismatic, triple-election winning PM being replaced by his dour Finance Minister.

With Cowen being less voter-friendly than Ahern and the “Celtic Tiger” economy starting to slow, Fine Gael under Enda Kenny must be in a strong position to win the next Dáil election in combination with Labour, their traditional allies. However, an election is not due until 2012, and there does not appear to be any immediate threat that the FF-Green-PD government (supported by some “gene-pool” independents) will collapse.